Sarah Delicate from United Shoreline Ontario (USO) shared with us this letter from Mike French, a licensed Professional Engineer:

Hi Sarah,

I’m a resident of the Toronto Islands and have been on the forefront of our battle with high lake levels and flooding. I have written a couple of mitigation reports for the City of Toronto and the Toronto Regional Conservation Authority specifically targeting the Toronto Islands. 

Your group might be interested in my most recent report (attached) that forecasts flooding next spring. I have been studying the lake data and have looked at 5 different forecast scenarios through to Dec 2020. Even if we have an average year next year, it looks like we will have more flooding, unless the IJC increases the outflows until Dec.

I’m starting to share this document with other groups and would love any feedback to pick apart or substantiate my findings.

Best Regards,

Mike French, P.Eng.

11 Channel Ave.

Toronto, ON

Great Lakes Forecast from Oct 2019 – Dec 2020 

Conclusion: All of the Great Lakes are experiencing higher RNBS due to climate conditions. The combined RNBS contribution to supply in the upper Great Lakes will keep a continuous high inflow into Lake Ontario at least through 2020.

The IJC is following the Plan 2014 regulation for Lake Ontario and have started to reduce outflow through the Moses-Saunders Dam to match the prescribed L-limit flow, but this flow will not drop Lake Ontario enough to compensate for the spring change in supply. If the upper Great Lakes levels were close to their historic average and next spring’s RNBS is somewhat average, then the system L-limits will work, but the current formula fails to take into consideration the flow potential of the upper Great Lakes.

From the Plan 2014 Compendium Document: “The Board may also use the information acquired through the adaptive management strategy to propose to the Commission modifications to the plan should it learn over time that conditions (climatic, socio-economic or environmental) have changed enough such that the plan is no longer meeting its intended objectives or improvements to the plan could realize increased benefits.”

This is a case where the Board must intervene and modify the flow limits to reduce the Lake Ontario levels down to ideally 74.5m before the next cycle begins, otherwise the lake will be faced with another catastrophic flood in spring 2020.

74.5 meters = 244.4226 feet , or 74.5 meters = 244.4 feet

How did the flood of 2017 affected waterfront real estate around Sodus Bay?

Now that the water levels are down, and most of the waterfront property owners around Sodus Bay have recovered from the initial shock (but still trying to asses the damage) of the recent flood, it is a good time to evaluate the steps moving forward.

Water quality of Sodus Bay, water level fluctuations – and our ability to handle both, is directly related to the values of the properties and businesses around Sodus Bay and determine whether we could enjoy boating, fishing, sailing, swimming and relaxing on the bay.

The scope of the effort to keep water quality and aquatic life healthy and water levels under control is very broad.

How to keep water levels under control and who is to blame is still debated.

The questions I have is what can a waterfront home owner do to stack the odds in his favor that the next flood won’t cause a devastation to the property.

And, looking beyond the floods, what can we all do to help keep the bay healthy for generations to come.

I have decided to interview different experts who can shed light on those questions from very different perspectives.

The first interview was with Tom Yale, a Realtor with Howard Hanna, an owner of a waterfront property on Sodus Bay and a board member of Save Our Sodus.

What should the buyers look for when looking at waterfront properties?

What can the sellers do to make their property more desirable for the buyers?

Were there any “winners” after the flood?

What is one, often overlooked, strategy that can significantly lower monthly mortgage payments for waterfront property owners?

Watch this video to get the answers to these and more questions.

Stay tuned for more videos to get trusted insights for Smart Waterfront Living around Sodus Bay.